DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH COMPLEX SRN STREAM UPR LOW
NOW OVER THE SRN PLNS BEING THE MAIN FACTOR OF CONCERN FOR SVR
WEATHER. ELONGATED N/S SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN BASE OF TROUGH
/OVER NE MEX AND THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO/ SHOULD ACCELERATE NE
ACROSS THE N CNTRL GULF LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION AND
CONTINUED SE MOTION OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER NW TX. THE LEAD
IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO GA/SC TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...
RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING AND VEERING OF MID/UPR LVL FLOW OVER THE
ERN GULF/FL.
AT THE SFC...LOW NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MI S OF GPT HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED BY MCS TO ITS S AND E. THE LOW SHOULD BECOME BETTER
DEFINED AND BEGIN MOVING NEWD LATER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED UPR IMPULSE
ACCELERATES NEWD. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY
EVE...AND CONTINUE N/NE INTO NRN GA BY 12Z SUN. AS THIS
OCCURS...SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT SHOULD REDEVELOP NWWD ACROSS CNTRL
FL...WHILE SHALLOW CSTL BNDRY EDGES SLOWLY W/NW TOWARD THE NE
FL/GA/SC CST.
...CNTRL FL THIS EVE/EARLY SUN...
MCS NOW OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AND
EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A NNE/SSW ORIENTED QLCS AS UPR FLOW TEMPORARILY
BACKS DOWNSTREAM FROM LEAD UPR IMPULSE. THIS BEHAVIOR SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED AIR MASS RECOVERY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. GIVEN CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS... EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 60S E/SE OF MCS.
THE QLCS SHOULD RESUME ITS EWD MOTION THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN AS UPR
FLOW VEERS AND STRENGTHENS. WITH 500 MB SW FLOW INCREASING TO
AROUND 60 KTS ATOP 40-50 KT CONFLUENT SSWLY LOW LVL FLOW...WIND
PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPR DIFFLUENCE... SETUP WILL YIELD A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES.
...FL PANHANDLE/NW FL/SRN GA THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...
NRN PART OF PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED QLCS...AND POSSIBLY OTHER STORMS
FORMING INVOF NE-MOVING SFC LOW...WILL POSE A LOW CONDITIONAL THREAT
FOR LOCALLY DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO LATE THIS AFTN INTO
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ISALLOBARICALLY-INDUCED ENELY SFC WINDS WILL
RETARD DESTABILIZATION...AS WILL PERSISTENT WAA RAIN INTO EXISTING
SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS. THUS...OVERALL SVR THREAT IN REGION APPEARS
LOW.
...CSTL SC...
WWD MOVEMENT OF CSTL FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR LIMITED LOW LVL
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SC CSTL WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SC
CST EARLY SUN...AMIDST AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRENGTHENING DEEP
SHEAR/ASCENT. SCTD WAA STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...MAY
FORM. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT TRUE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...SHOULD IT APPEAR THAT WWD MOTION OF CSTL
BOUNDARY WILL BE GREATER THAN NOW EXPECTED...CSTL SC MAY REQUIRE
UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TORNADOES/.
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