...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A TREND TOWARD INCREASED AMPLIFICATION WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD AS

DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN RCKYS CONTINUES SE INTO THE CNTRL

PLNS...AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FAR WEST. IN

RESPONSE...S TX DISTURBANCE SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE TO THE CNTRL GULF

CST BY 12Z FRI AS IT BECOMES FURTHER ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING

WSW FLOW AHEAD OF PLNS TROUGH.



AT LWR LVLS...WEAK SFC CYCLONE NOW OVER THE NW GULF SHOULD TRACK ENE

TO THE AREA S OF MOBILE BAY EARLY FRI...SLIGHTLY DEEPENING IN THE

PROCESS. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING E

INTO FL SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME...SFC PATTERN WILL BE

COMPLICATED BY WAA RAIN/STORMS...AND BY SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL

SEGMENTS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG LAND/SEA INTERFACES BORDERING THE

FL PENINSULA.



...PARTS OF SRN FL...

SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND S

FL WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI AS LWR TROPOSPHERIC

FLOW STRENGTHENS AND VEERS AHEAD OF GULF SFC WAVE.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND WAA LIKELY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED

DEVELOPMENT AND NEWD SPREAD OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER THE CNTRL

GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE FL W CST TOWARD THE END OF

THE PERIOD. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL BE WEAK GIVEN TIME OF

DAY AND WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. BUT GIVEN COMBINATION OF

INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND APPRECIABLE SHEAR

/BOTH LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR/...POTENTIAL WILL

EXIST FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR A SMALL BOW OR

TWO AND/OR A TORNADO.



IN THE MEAN TIME...CSTL BOUNDARY/TROUGH MARKING LAND-SEA INTERFACE

ALONG THE SE FL CST SSW INTO THE EVERGLADES LIKELY WILL REMAIN A

FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLD

WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THIS FEATURE

TODAY...ALTHOUGH MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT

DURATION/SCOPE/INTENSITY OF ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT. A GRADUALLY

INCREASING SVR THREAT MAY...HOWEVER...EVOLVE ALONG THIS FEATURE...OR

OTHER SIMILAR LOW LVL BOUNDARIES...OVER SRN/E CNTRL FL TONIGHT AND

EARLY FRI AS WINDS...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT

INCREASE AHEAD OF GULF WAVE.