...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR


THE FL PENINSULA...



...FL AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

A SURFACE CYCLONE S OF MOB THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG A

BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS N FL THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A SRN STREAM

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/ADJACENT N CENTRAL GULF OF

MEXICO EJECTS ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH

THAT WILL REACH THE MID MS VALLEY. GRADUAL PHASING WILL OCCUR LATER

TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG

CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL/S FL AS

A RESIDUAL/WEAK FRONT ALONG THE SE FL COAST LIFTS NWD IN ADVANCE OF

THE SURFACE LOW. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ERN GULF AND

REACH THE FL W COAST THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ALL OF

FL FRIDAY NIGHT.



A LOOSE BAND OF MAINLY LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THROUGH

THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CAPE

CANAVERAL SWD TO PALM BEACH. RELATIVELY SHALLOW BUOYANCY AND

SOMEWHAT COOLER/MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAND HAVE LIMITED THE

SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT THUS FAR...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS BEEN

SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS AREA OF

CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BELT

OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE

KEYS/SE GULF ACROSS S FL THROUGH THE MORNING. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN

LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...AND SOME LOW-LEVEL

WARMING/MOISTENING...SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR

SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS S FL THROUGH THE

MORNING/MIDDAY. THIS THREAT SHOULD ALSO SPREAD NWD TOWARD CENTRAL

AND N FL WITH THE RETREAT OF THE WEAK FRONT NOW NEAR THE

COAST...THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN MAKE DESTABILIZATION LESS

CERTAIN TOWARD N FL.



ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON

INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FL FROM THE ERN

GULF OF MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SWLY IN

PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...LEAVING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES

AND DAMAGING GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BY THIS

EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT.