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nov 27 image
t-storm risk

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

dec 23 msd 2276



CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 805...




VALID 240150Z - 240315Z



THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 805 CONTINUES.



ISOLATED SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE...WITH NEW WW LIKELY

GIVEN THE SCHEDULED 24/03Z EXPIRATION OF WW 0805.



LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN OK SWWD INTO THE DFW METROPLEX AND

WWD TO S OF ABI. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING

SEWD...WHILE THE MORE N-S SEGMENT OF THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING OUT

OF W TX TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION.



AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...E TX AND THE ARKLATEX REMAIN

MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

NOW SPREADING NEWD TOWARD ERN OK/AR AND MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION

INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SERN TX. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION ALONG

THE N-S PORTION OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...AS THE

FRONT IMPINGES ON INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL

TX.



WITH FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...KINEMATIC

ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS. INCREASING ASCENT

INVOF THE ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD YIELD AN INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX

OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE E

TX/ARKLATEX STORMS. WHILE MODEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING

FACTOR...SHEAR SHOULD AID IN LOCAL STORM INTENSIFICATION/

LONGEVITY...AND THUS EXPECT SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL TO

CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. STORM MODE SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME

INCREASINGLY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH

CORRESPONDING POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE

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